AfDB forecasts 5% GDP growth for Ghana as macroeconomic indicators strengthen

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has projected a robust economic expansion for Ghana, forecasting the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 5.0 per cent in 2026.

According to the newly released flagship 2026 African Economic Outlook Report, the country’s economic momentum is expected to strengthen further to 5.4 per cent in 2027. This trajectory firmly positions Ghana among the stronger-performing economies within the West African sub-region.

The optimistic macroeconomic forecast by the continent’s premier development finance institution is marginally higher than the 4.8 per cent growth target previously set for the country by both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, signalling stronger-than-expected domestic resilience.

Easing Price Pressures and Fiscal Consolidation

The AfDB report indicates that Ghana’s inflation rate is projected to end the year 2026 stabilised at 9.0 per cent. Although this year-end target sits higher than the current headline inflation range of approximately 3 per cent being recorded in the country, the pan-African bank notes that the figures reflect structural expectations of improving macroeconomic stability and a broader easing of consumer price pressures.

Parallel to this inflationary outlook, the report anticipates a gradual but steady improvement in the state’s internal fiscal management.

The national fiscal deficit is projected to contract from 2.6 per cent of GDP in 2026 down to 2.2 per cent in 2027. This expected narrowing points to the positive impact of ongoing state revenue mobilisation strategies and expenditure rationalisation policies.

Strong External Sector Resilience

On the external front, Ghana is tipped to maintain an enviable balance of payments position, anchored by a strong current account surplus.

The bank’s researchers project the current account surplus to hit 3.0 per cent of GDP in 2026, before moderating slightly to 2.7 per cent in 2027. This continuous surplus underscores a robust resilience in Ghana’s external trade sector, driven largely by traditional commodity exports, despite prevailing global economic uncertainties.

Taking a broader look at the sub-region, the AfDB report estimates that West Africa’s regional economy will expand by an average of 4.7 per cent in 2026. This regional growth is heavily supported by bumper agricultural outputs, rapidly expanding agro-processing value chains, and sustained public capital investments in modern infrastructure, regional energy grids, and cross-border transport networks.

Downside Risks and Call to Action

Despite the positive growth outlook, the African Development Bank has raised several flags, warning African finance ministries—including Ghana’s Ministry of Finance—to remain highly vigilant.

The Bank cautioned that rising geopolitical tensions, elevated global crude oil and fertiliser prices, and persistent disruptions across international supply chains remain significant downside risks capable of derailing African economies.

To counter these vulnerabilities, the report stressed the urgent need for African countries to aggressively strengthen domestic resource mobilisation, deepen intra-continental trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and drastically improve public fiscal management. These measures, the bank noted, are critical to reducing toxic exposures to external shocks and enhancing long-term economic resilience.

المصدر: MyJoyOnline (GH)