BN will gain if Pas, Bersatu split, say analysts [WATCH]

KUALA LUMPUR: Perikatan Nasional is under mounting pressure, but analysts say Bersatu is unlikely to walk away from the coalition, even as tensions with Pas deepen into what one analyst calls a “political time bomb”.

Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the conflict between the two parties remained within the bounds of intra-coalition rivalry, but warned that it had the potential to spiral if left unresolved.

“I see the risk in Perlis and the split within PN as a political time bomb if it fails to be managed wisely by the leadership of both parties,” he told the New Straits Times.

International Islamic University Malaysia political scientist Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said she did not foresee the Perlis and Kedah state governments collapsing before the 16th General Election, adding that Pas held too commanding a majority in Kedah to be seriously threatened.

“I don’t see these crises spilling into larger state government instability because of the signalling from Pas, especially that they would like to keep things intact for now.”

Universiti Malaya sociopolitical analyst Professor Datuk Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi shared the same sentiment, but cautioned that the Perlis episode had already exposed the coalition’s most sensitive fault line — disputes over state governments that PN controlled.

And if Pas and Bersatu were to contest the next general election separately, analysts are in broad agreement on who stands to gain the most: Umno and Barisan Nasional.

Tawfik said a vote split in Malay-majority and semi-urban seats, even a modest one, could prove decisive under Malaysia’s first-past-the-post system.

“Contesting separately would be political suicide for Pas and Bersatu in many key seats. Without a political compromise, they can forget about capturing Putrajaya.”

Professor James Chin of University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute said Bersatu had little choice but to stay put.

“Bersatu is unlikely to leave PN because they know if they go independent, it will even be worse for them.”

Awang Azman said Umno was best positioned to exploit this fracture by presenting itself as the stable, institutional Malay party — a contrast that could resonate with voters fatigued by opposition infighting.

Pakatan Harapan, he said, would also benefit in urban and mixed constituencies, where a divided Malay opposition vote would ease pressure on the unity government coalition.

Syaza said conservative Malay voters identified more closely with Pas than with Bersatu, meaning that any split would fall unevenly — with Bersatu bearing the heavier cost.

On Sunday, Pas held an emergency meeting to discuss issues concerning PN, including the party’s future with Bersatu.

It was learnt that the meeting chaired by Pas president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang in Kuala Terengganu involved the top leadership, including the political bureau and central committee members.

This came after Hadi said the party would review its cooperation with Bersatu, following several actions that Pas claimed had undermined the spirit of camaraderie within PN.

© New Straits Times Press (M) Bhd

المصدر: New Straits Times