Anwar feels his way to 2027 polls
رجوع
MAY 28 — Speed, agility and strength are quintessential in track and field’s triple jump events, but all comes to nought without rhythm.
Hop too soon and lose out on distance, worry too much about distance and forget about the step then everything goes off colour, and let’s not even get into the need for a final explosive leap. Rhythm cuts through. A bit zen-like.
Malaysian elections are like that and Anwar Ibrahim understands rhythm better than all in the field presently.
It also helps that he is the only person who knows when the next general election is. He gets to set the pace.
His experience and bitter education with rhythm is evidenced in his meteoric rise, catastrophic fall and prolonged impatient wait to lead the country. They aid him to read the electorate.
He did join Umno in the same year he was named a candidate, won his family’s traditional seat and became a deputy minister in 1982.
Devastating PAS which felt he was odds-on — not that the party members gamble — set to be a PAS member before eloping with the great enemy.
He did grab Umno’s deputy president post by the scruff of the neck with the dexterity of a seasoned pro in around 10 years.
He would have replaced Mahathir Mohamad sooner if he did not mistime his belligerence before the millennium. It probably reinforced a degree of caution in him.
He spent the next 24 years — some behind bars — working around the various administrations’ strategies and tactics.
Anwar holds the cards now, and he is not going to show them until he absolutely has to.
But news and events are percolating, and the prime minister’s reactions to them are strong indicators that elections are likely to be in 2027.
Everybody Wang Chung Tonight
The three main Semenanjung coalitions are at different stages today.
Perikatan Nasional’s spine PAS faces an impossible choice to either stay with Bersatu or back its emergent splinter group.
In its usual default, it lets rancorous divisions with Muhyiddin Yassin’s leadership play out rather than be decisive about it.
PAS are masters of passive aggressive politics which paves the way to deny they were responsible for any misgivings.
In their after the fact narrative, it was forced upon them therefore they are innocent and maintain their purity of intent.
Snubs, olive branches, cynical statements, de-escalations, confusions and frustrations will dominate the space until either Muhyiddin’s crew or Hamzah Zainudin’s — if he sorts out his vehicle — is preferred by PAS.
The Islamists can only replicate 2022’s results if they have moderates with them, like in Padang Serai, Bagan Serai, Kuala Langat or Jasin. They need the dark blue of PN on the ballot paper when in the west coast.
Either way, it’s a protracted process, the choosing simply due to PAS’ nature to eschew it.
Meanwhile, Barisan Nasional is riding high. Rumah Bangsa recruitment, the Negeri Sembilan standoff, the Johor solo resolve complete with its mentri besar apologising to the party president consolidates inwards to display renewal, separation from Pakatan Harapan and readiness to helm the country.
In this GE16 race, there is little doubt BN is pace-setting with the chasing pack a bit behind.
Which begs the question, how far behind is Pakatan under PKR’s leadership?
The Reformasi party reshuffled its election preparedness, lifting the Selangor Mentri Besar as co-election director, leaving more queries about deputy president Nurul Izzah Anwar’s exact role rather than the fluff of overseeing strategic development and grassroots development.
A new war-room is up and running with Anwar’s political secretary Azman Abidin heading it.
The numbers continue to circulate about PKR’s chances in a general election. Mood matters, and PKR won’t want an election when people feel its support is suspect.
Key partner and electoral safety net DAP however has a plan A, B and C with a readiness for any eventuality.
It fears losing its credibility, and the July 12 party congress is interested in the soul of the party rather than its place in the federal Cabinet. DAP may ask more of Anwar before the year ends.
There are nuances within the PKR-DAP relations but it remains not frayed.
Anwar sees Umno is ahead in preparations despite PN lighting itself up and screaming in its flames.
Is he caught unawares or since he has a date in mind knows Umno-BN is premature and PN can continue its cremation?
Scheduling, scheduling, scheduling
First week of June will be done when the last Raya Haji holiday-maker’s car arrives back in the city, and the countdown to the World Cup begins.
The final is played on July 20, and once the euphoria dies down the Merdeka month energy kicks in until mid-September.
The window for a general election is between late September till November ends. And thereafter holidays and year-end merriments compete for space.
If the Anwar administration straddles the situation calmly and weathers the global oil supply, he has no pressure to go to the polls before 2027.
And 2027, politically, only kicks off in April, since the fasting month followed by Raya fills up both February and March.
Perhaps this was in Anwar’s mind all along.
That Umno runs out of overexuberance by year-end. It’s a party that requires enough rope to hurt itself. Anwar might be supplying it.
A few more unfortunate decisions in court, or trouble with the palaces or outright power struggles cannot be ruled out.
There are a lot of forced smiles inside the party presently. And at some point, Khairy Jamaluddin Abu Bakar’s turns to speak plaudits about the most excellent Zahid Hamidi and his leadership of purpose and integrity which is beyond reproach may turn the population vertigo. And accelerate Planet Zygo’s invasion of earth.
Parallelly, PKR picks up steam with a bevy of good news from around October beginning with the Budget. Pardon, election Budget.
Which is why this column is convinced he is preparing his hop, step and jump for 2027 rather than 2026.
If events beyond his control force it this year, there is real fear that the Pakatan campaign is off-tempo, and the seat count proves it.
* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.
المصدر: Malay Mail