Costa Rica Exchange Rate Still Has Not Reflected Oil Shock, Central Bank Says
The U.S. dollar remains under ¢455 in Costa Rica’s wholesale currency market, even as higher international oil prices threaten to increase the country’s demand for foreign currency in the coming months.
The exchange rate in Monex, Costa Rica’s foreign-exchange market, reached a new low yesterday, with a weighted average of ¢452.74 per dollar. On May 27, it remained near that level at ¢453.25, while the Central Bank’s reference rate stood at ¢450.95 for buying and ¢454.32 for selling.
The drop has kept pressure on exporters, tourism operators and others who earn in dollars but pay many costs in colones. For consumers and travelers paid in dollars, however, the stronger colón continues to make Costa Rica more expensive compared with past years.
Central Bank President Róger Madrigal said the exchange market has not yet reflected the expected increase in demand for dollars tied to the higher cost of importing fuel.
“No lo he visto. No se ha manifestado,” Madrigal said, referring to the added demand for dollars. He noted that Recope had been buying between $15 million and $20 million, but in parts of March and April actually reduced its demand. “Creo que vendrá más. Esto apenas empieza.”
Recope, the state fuel importer, and the Costa Rican Electricity Institute are among the main public-sector buyers of dollars used to pay for hydrocarbons. A sustained increase in oil prices would normally raise demand for dollars, since Costa Rica imports its fuel and pays for it in foreign currency.
The timing is the issue. The oil shock has begun to affect projections, but not yet the daily currency market in a clear way. The Central Bank has already warned that Costa Rica may spend far more than expected on its oil bill during 2026 and 2027 because of the conflict in the Middle East and the disruption to global energy markets. Madrigal previously estimated that the country could face roughly $1.07 billion in additional fuel costs across the two-year period, including about $650 million in 2026 and $420 million in 2027.
That would place new pressure on the economy after months of a strong colón. The exchange rate has been pushed down by a steady supply of dollars from exports, tourism, foreign investment and services. A weaker global dollar has also added to the downward pressure. For now, those forces are still outweighing the expected fuel-related demand.
The Central Bank operates under a managed floating exchange-rate system, meaning the price of the dollar is set by supply and demand, though the bank may intervene to reduce sharp movements. Madrigal has repeatedly said the institution does not target a specific exchange-rate level.
The situation leaves Costa Rica in a delicate position. A strong colón helps reduce the local cost of imported goods and can soften inflation in the short term. But it also hurts sectors that earn in dollars, including agriculture, tourism and exporters, because wages, electricity, fuel, social charges and many local expenses are paid in colones.
Higher oil prices could change that balance. If Recope and other public-sector buyers increase dollar purchases to pay the fuel bill, the added demand may slow the colón’s rise or put upward pressure on the exchange rate. Oil markets remain volatile. Prices have moved sharply in recent weeks as traders react to developments involving Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and possible efforts to restore shipping flows through one of the world’s most important energy routes.
For Costa Rica, the question is not only where oil prices go next, but when the added cost begins to show up in the currency market, fuel prices and inflation. For now, the dollar remains near historic lows. Madrigal’s warning is that the full effect of the oil shock has not arrived yet.
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المصدر: Tico Times
