Cyprus economic index slips further as geopolitical pressures intensify

Cyprus’ short-term economic momentum weakened further in April, as the Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) fell for a second consecutive month, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions, external pressures and weaker tourism activity. 

The index, compiled by the Economics Research Centre of the University of Cyprus (CypERC), recorded an annual decline of 1.72 per cent in April 2026, according to the latest revised data. 

This followed a marginal annual drop in March, after the index had still posted an annual increase of 0.82 per cent in February, pointing to a further loss of momentum in the Cypriot economy. 

According to the centre, the deterioration mainly reflected adverse developments across several components of the index, at a time when the economy is facing increased geopolitical and external economic pressures. 

More specifically, the economic climate in both the euro area and Cyprus worsened in April 2026 compared with the same month last year, leading to an annual decline in the weighted Economic Climate Index. 

At the same time, Brent crude oil prices recorded a stronger annual increase in April, following the rise already seen in March, adding further pressure to economic conditions. 

Tourism also weighed on the index, with arrivals affected by flight cancellations and possible fuel shortages, leading to a significant annual decline in April. 

However, the picture was not entirely negative. The temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production, real estate sales documents, credit card transactions and the retail sales volume index all contributed positively to the annual growth rate of the index. 

Overall, the annual decline in the CCLEI in April points to a weakening of the Cypriot economy’s growth momentum in the short term, as geopolitical tensions and external economic pressures continue to weigh on activity. 

The CCLEI is designed to provide early warning signals of turning points in the business cycle, helping to identify possible shifts in Cypriot economic activity before they are reflected in broader economic data. 

It is composed of leading variables whose movements tend to precede changes in overall economic activity.

These include Brent crude oil prices, the Cyprus and eurozone Economic Sentiment Index, real estate sales documents, tourist arrivals, Cypriot credit card transactions, the retail sales volume index and the temperature-adjusted electricity generation volume index.

المصدر: Cyprus Mail