How GDP expanded by 3.89% in Q1 2026

Despite persistent structural weaknesses, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.89% (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2026, a report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has stated.
The report said the figure is higher than the 3.13% recorded in the first quarter of 2025.
It noted that during Q1 2026, agriculture grew by 3.15%, an improvement from the 0.07% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025 while the growth of the industry sector stood at 3.50% from 3.42% recorded in the first quarter of 2025.
It added that the services sector recorded a growth of 4.31% from 4.33% in the same quarter of 2025 but in terms of share of the GDP, the services sector contributed more to the aggregate GDP in the first quarter of 2026 at 57.73% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2025 at 57.50%.
On nominal terms, it said the economy now worth N110.78 trillion, adding that the performance is higher when compared to the first quarter of 2025, which recorded an aggregate GDP of N94.05trn, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 17.79%.
It added that the oil sector grew by 2.57% (year-on-year) in Q1 2026, indicating an increase of 0.70% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025 (1.87%).
“However, growth decreased by 4.22% points when compared to Q4 2025, which was 6.79%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 9.31% in Q1 2026. The Oil sector contributed 3.92% to the total real GDP in Q1 2026, down from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2025 at 3.97%and up from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 2.87%.
For the non-oil sector, it grew by 3.94% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q1 2026).
“This rate was higher by 0.75% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2025, which was 3.19%, and lower than the 3.99% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. This sector was driven in the first quarter of 2026 mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunications); Agriculture (Crop production); Trade; Manufacturing (Cement); Financial & Insurance (Financial Institutions); Real Estate; Construction; and Transportation and Storage (Road Transport), accounting for positive GDP growth,” the report added.
…Structural weakness persists – Expert
Speaking on the issue, a development Economist, Dr. Maxwell Chime noted that Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 3.89% represents a stronger-than-expected expansion and reinforces the view that the economy has become increasingly resilient outside the oil sector.
He said the figures indicate that domestic economic activity remains relatively strong despite inflationary pressures, exchange-rate adjustments, high borrowing costs, and lower crude oil production.
He however expressed reservations over persistent structural weakness in some sectors of the economy.
“However, while the headline number is positive, the deeper economic picture is mixed. The report reflects an economy that is expanding unevenly with strong momentum in services and agriculture, but persistent weakness in productivity-enhancing sectors such as electricity and industrial production,” he said.
He further stated that the most important structural message from the report is that the non-oil sector contributed more than 96% of total real GDP.
“This confirms a long-running transition in Nigeria’s economic structure:
the economy is no longer primarily driven by crude oil in terms of output generation as the strongest growth drivers were: telecommunications, financial services, agriculture, trade, construction, and real estate.

For years, fluctuations in crude oil prices determined Nigeria’s economic direction. The latest data suggests that domestic consumption, digital services, financial intermediation, and internal trade are now carrying a larger share of economic activity,” he added.

المصدر: Daily Trust (NG)