Johor polls seen as litmus test for BN ahead of GE16

KUALA LUMPUR: The upcoming Johor state election is shaping up as a key litmus test of Barisan Nasional’s (BN) voter support, say political analysts.

They said it would also serve as an early gauge of political sentiment towards the unity government ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16).

Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Professor Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said the Johor polls would function as both a barometer of BN’s current support and a performance assessment of the unity government.

He said Johor’s political and economic importance made it a key reference point for voter confidence in state and federal leadership.

“The Johor election is likely to become an important narrative-setting contest ahead of GE16.

“A strong showing by BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH) would reinforce the view that the unity government formula remains viable and electorally effective,” he told the New Straits Times today.

Sivamurugan said beyond seat outcomes, parties would also be watching voting patterns, youth turnout and ethnic support trends as key indicators for future strategy.

Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the election would be closely watched as both a litmus test for BN and a partial referendum on the unity government.

However, he said it should not be seen as a perfect predictor of GE16, as Johor’s political landscape is also shaped by local issues such as development, cost of living, infrastructure and investment.

He said Johor’s status as a BN stronghold, where the coalition secured 40 of 56 seats in the 2022 state election, meant any shift in support would carry significant implications.

“First, Johor is traditionally one of BN’s strongest states. BN won a commanding 40 out of 56 seats in the 2022 state election and has governed the state with a comfortable majority since.

“The upcoming election will therefore indicate whether BN’s support remains intact after four years in government amid changing national dynamics,” he said.

Tawfik added that voters were also expected to assess the performance of the Johor government under Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi, as well as the federal administration led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

International Islamic University Malaysia political scientist Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said the Johor polls should be viewed primarily as a test of BN’s strength in its traditional stronghold rather than a full referendum on the unity government.

She said the outcome could influence political momentum ahead of GE16, particularly if BN performs strongly and generates a bandwagon effect.

“It is really about BN consolidating its support in Johor, where it still holds dominance for now.

“Ultimately, it is a referendum on BN – how big or small its gains or losses will be.

“As Johor is a BN stronghold, any major shift there would reflect the future of BN,” she said.

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المصدر: New Straits Times