Oil falls over 1% on reports of potential US-Iran ceasefire deal

Oil futures fell more than 1% on Friday and were on track for their steepest weekly decline since early April, following ​reports that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to extend a ceasefire, ‌though it had yet to be finalised.

Brent crude futures for July fell 1.1% or $1.04 to $92.67 a barrel at 0330 GMT. U.S. oil futures fell $1.26, or 1.4%, to $87.64 a barrel. Brent plunged 10.5% ​this week – the steepest plunge since the week that ended on April ​6, while WTI fell 9.2% – the biggest weekly loss since the ⁠week that ended on April 13.

The U.S. and Iran reached an agreement on Thursday to ​extend a ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sources ​told Reuters, though U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to approve it and Iranian state media said it had not been finalised.

“Consensus remains the conflict is over, and a deal is coming. ​As long as this narrative holds, crude oil has room to extend its decline ​toward trendline support in the low $80s,” IG analyst Tony Sycamore said.

Prices have been volatile in recent ‌sessions, ⁠swinging by as much as $6 for both benchmarks on conflicting signals over a possible end to the three-month U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – a key conduit for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and ​liquefied natural gas supplies.

Traffic ​through the maritime ⁠chokepoint remains a small fraction of the pre-war level. Analysts at ING said a reopening of the strait would offer some immediate ​relief to the oil market, but a recovery is still uncertain.

“Upstream ​oil production ⁠has fallen significantly since the war, with producers shutting in production in order to manage storage constraints,” ING said in a note. “The recovery in upstream production will be gradual ⁠rather ​than immediate.”

“Refineries in the region need to ramp up ​output. This will take time, given that some of this infrastructure was targeted in attacks earlier in the ​conflict.”

المصدر: MyJoyOnline (GH)