Rubio’s India Visit Shows America Has Lost Indian Street
Senior American visitors once drew breathless coverage and packed streets. The admiration that survived Cold War sanctions and a Pakistan tilt is now evaporating, just as Washington can least afford an Indian public that has stopped looking up to it.
This is perhaps the first time, in recent memory at least, that the official trip of the Secretary of State of the United States to India was met with indifference by Indian Street. Indian Street is different from the Indian establishment, and it is important to know the difference between the two. The dissonance between Indian Street and the Indian establishment on the United States has been completely overlooked by the commentariat, even though this dissonance, now quite visible, is critical to understanding the relationship status between the two nations.
The current generation of influencers and commentators finds it hard to believe, but India and the United States, for the most part of the last 75 years, have had a frosty relationship. However, the people-to-people relationship has always been warm and friendly. Indian Street has admiringly looked up to America’s economic success and appreciated the free markets, meritocracy and rule of law that America offers her citizens. Even when the Cold War was raging and America’s tilt towards Pakistan had caused many a heartburn in India, Indian Street still continued its quiet admiration for America.
There is an emotional attachment to the erstwhile USSR and now Russia, which comes with gratitude for standing with India at all times. Yet the average Indian has always wanted India to be more like the USA and never like the USSR. Indira Gandhi sparred with Nixon, and Clinton sanctioned India, yet the admiration of Indians for ‘American system of governance’ never faded away.
Some might call it a dichotomy, others might view it as schizophrenia, but the fact is Indians have managed to remain thankful and grateful to Russians but have deeply admired America. The erstwhile diplomatic corps of the USA knew and understood this well. At a conference in 2018, a seasoned American diplomat told me, off the record: “We don’t worry about Indian communists, they too send their kids to American universities.” A chuckle and a twinkle in the eye followed, but it was clear American diplomats understood and recognised the sentiment of the Indian public.
This sentiment worked for the India-US relationship when the historic civil nuclear deal was signed between the two nations. The Clinton administration had previously sanctioned India soon after the Pokhran tests. The Indian establishment took it on the chin, and Indian Street still continued to be favourable to the American people. The then prime minister, Manmohan Singh, would gamble the future of his government in order to pass the bill in Parliament. He was willing to go with it because he knew where the people on the Street stood. No elected government can afford to go against public sentiment.
This sentiment and the deep admiration for America have now miraculously evaporated from Indian Street. What is stunning is how quickly this turnaround happened. It is true that elites control opinion in any society, and especially in matters concerning foreign policy, it is the few high-ranking elites who steer the trajectory of opinion. Yet in today’s hyper-connected digital world, policymakers can no longer dismiss public opinion. In an era where everyone with a point of view can broadcast their opinion, foreign policy can no longer permanently be insulated from Vox Populi.
For the last 25 years, when there was consensus between Indian public sentiment and establishment policy, the relationship between India and the United States soared. When any senior US government official visited India, there was breathless news coverage, and the Street would be buzzing with anticipation and excitement. Sometimes it bordered on embarrassment, but the fact is people loved the media coverage of visiting American dignitaries and felt involved. Secretary Rubio’s visit, on the contrary, has felt forced, manipulative and unnecessary to the Indian Street.
Indian parents have begun to question the wisdom of sending their kids to American universities if they have to face racism and violence. Indian professionals have begun to question the wisdom of working in the US if immigration policy is going to keep changing. The average Indian now has access to American social media, and with that comes unfettered access to American society without filters. Sitting in India, the view is messy and chaotic. There are pretty suburbs and twenty-lane freeways, but there is also squalor and lawlessness in some parts of the United States.
The fact is, the United States, just like India, is a continent-sized country and every contradiction exists on the ground, but it is only now that Indians sitting in India can see these contradictions. The ‘reality’ painted by Hollywood begins to get a ‘reality check’. America continues to be the most powerful nation in the world, but its warts are now visible to Indian Street, and that previous unvarnished admiration now comes with caveats. When the American establishment now cocks a snook at India, Indian Street no longer responds with rose-tinted glasses.
Why should this matter to the richest and most powerful country in the world? Simply because GDP numbers and the size of an economy and military never guarantee permanent longevity. India matters because the size and scale of India cannot be ignored. The geography of India cannot be ignored, and the quality of human resources originating from India matters. The American establishment knows this, irrespective of what the White House says and believes.
Even if you dismiss platitudes of ‘oldest democracy and largest democracy’, ‘natural allies’ and ‘fellow democracies with shared worldview’, the fact is India cannot be ignored because China and America can never kiss and make up. Never, ever in the history of two competing nations have a challenger and a defender formed a benign relationship. It suits Xi Jinping to say that the USA and China should avoid the Thucydides Trap. Both Trump and Xi know this trap is unavoidable, and both are preparing for it. There will be a G2, but it will be G1 vs G2, and not G1 together with G2 ganging up against the rest.
In this scenario, India plays a crucial role in spite of what the USA and China think and want. The sheer size and scale of India make it indispensable in tilting the balance of power. Pakistan may provide endless entertainment thanks to its ‘favourite field marshal’, and the Philippines may join the Squad with the United States, but neither of them has the military and economic heft India brings to the table.
If Indian Street continues to be indifferent to America and this indifference becomes hostility, Indian policymakers will find it very difficult to sell a pro-America foreign policy to her people. Secretary Rubio was right when, in reply to a question on racism against Indians in the United States, he said in a moment of unusual candour that stupid people are everywhere, they don’t represent America. Will Secretary Rubio be able to repeat this answer when he lands in America? Indian Street will be watching.
المصدر: Swarajya