Trump’s grip is slipping on Latino voters

Latino voters have soured on President Trump after powering his 2024 comeback.

Why it matters: Republicans hoped Trump’s gains represented a realignment, but poll after poll suggests Latino voters are up for grabs in the midterms.

Zoom in: Latino registered voters in 17 House swing districts remain highly fluid after Trump’s 2024 breakthrough, according to a new TelevisaUnivision/Harris poll out Wednesday.

• 52% say they are undecided or could still change their minds in the midterms.
• 73% say they are merely “surviving” financially. Neither party can escape cost-of-living frustration, including among Latinos.
• “This is a wide-open competition, and the campaigns that engage Hispanic voters directly, speak to their economic reality, and show they understand their lives will win this vote – and they will win these elections,” said Daniel Alegre, CEO of TelevisaUnivision.

The big picture: Trump’s 2024 Latino gains were real. Latino voters swung 22 points toward Republicans in 2024, per Pew’s validated-voter study.

• But it’s “dealignment,” not “realignment,” GOP strategist Mike Madrid argues: Latino voters are becoming less loyal to either party.
• Democrats believe inflation, tariffs and aggressive immigration enforcement are reopening Latino-heavy battleground districts they feared were slipping away.

By the numbers: The signs of Republican slippage among Latinos keep popping up.

• 25%: Share of Hispanic adults with a “somewhat” or “very” favorable view of Trump in an AP/NORC poll from October 2025.
• 78%: Share of Hispanic adults who say Trump’s policies have been harmful to Hispanics (Pew).
• 66%: Trump’s approval rating among Latinos who voted for him, down from 93% at the start of his second term (Pew, May 2026).

Between the lines: Texas Republicans redrew congressional maps around the assumption that Trump’s Latino gains would hold through the midterms, as Axios’ Russell Contreras previously reported.

• The new poll adds a warning sign: A majority of Latino voters in battleground districts say they could still change their minds.

The other side: NRCC Chair Rich Hudson has called Hispanic voters “the most important voting bloc” for House Republicans to keep their majority.

• “Republicans will continue to earn the support of Hispanic voters because we are working to deliver opportunity, security, and a better life,” NRCC Hispanic press secretary Christian Martinez told Politico.
• Trump was “honored to receive a record level of support from Hispanic Americans” in 2024 and has “spent every day since his inauguration working to make life better for them,” White House spokesperson Allison Schuster told Newsweek in a statement.

The bottom line: Neither party has a monopoly on Latino voters.

Methodology: The TelevisaUnivision Poll was conducted online April 24-May 6, 2026, by The Harris Poll. The poll is based on a sample of 700 Hispanic registered voters age 18 or older who lived in one of 17 competitive House districts.

• The margin of sampling error is ±4.7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

المصدر: Axios