Consultancies split on April activity, but most see Argentina’s recovery stalling

After the record March reading, private forecasters expect a contraction this month, with falling industrial output, weaker consumption and a slow soybean harvest dragging activity down.

Even as Javier Milei’s government made a big deal of March’s sharp jump in economic activity — an all-time high — most private gauges agree the rebound won’t repeat itself in April.

“Both official data and the readings from private business chambers suggest the March bounce was just a temporary breather in what is still a fragile dynamic,” the consultancy Vectorial said.

In its report, the think tank added that preliminary April data “shows deterioration across several sectors and points to another drop in overall activity, barring a last-minute statistical surprise.”

The private firm Equilibra is forecasting a 1% year-on-year decline and a 1.5% monthly drop. “It’s worth noting that activity has been moving like a sawtooth since February 2025,” the consultancy explained, with monthly contractions in nine of the past 15 months.

One of the key drags on April was the delay in the soybean harvest, caused by heavy rains during the month. Even so, that delay is expected to translate into a positive boost for May.

Another factor weighing on the April figure was that the corn harvest landed mostly in March rather than April — unlike the year before — and that beef slaughter fell 12% year-on-year.

In a similar vein, EcoGo estimated that activity was up just 0.1% year-on-year, but down 1.3% from the previous month. With that result, the consultancy said, “the economy is back to the average levels seen since late 2024.”

EcoGo also flagged drops in farming and livestock, down 7% from the previous month, falls in industry — down 1.5% — and a 2.4% monthly drop in imported supply.

Investment also fell, with a 2.5% monthly drop, and consumption contracted 1.4% from the previous month.

The think tank Orlando Ferreres & Asociados (OJF) also projected a 0.7% monthly decline. Measured against April 2025, however, the index was flat.

“Manufacturing and trade are entrenching themselves as the most lagging sectors, both in April and in the cumulative first four months of the year,” the report said.

Industry remains one of the hardest-hit sectors and a heavy drag on overall economic activity. By OJF’s estimates, it fell 0.5% month-on-month and 2% year-on-year.

For its part, the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) estimated that industrial activity was down 0.7% year-on-year and 0.4% from the previous month.

Dissenting voices

Some analysts, however, remain upbeat. The Fundación FIEL think tank, for example, found that industrial activity rose 0.8% in April both year-on-year and month-on-month.

The Center for Research on the Ecological Cycle (CICEC) reported a 0.2% monthly increase, though activity still came in 0.4% below the same month last year.

“There are improvements in construction and in industrial activity — from historically low levels — and solid figures for the wages of registered private-sector workers,” CICEC said.

The road ahead

“While we don’t expect this two-speed dynamic to shift in the short term, we should see a gradual improvement in the hardest-hit sectors,” Ferreres said.

The consultancy argued that “macro conditions have improved, and if inflation goes back to easing, we could see a pickup in household incomes and consumer confidence. That, combined with the pull from the more dynamic sectors, should allow for a turnaround in trade and industry.”

Claudio Caprarulo, director of the consultancy Analytica, told the Herald that while April data so far is “mixed,” his projection for the second quarter of 2026 is “for stronger growth than in the first.”

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المصدر: Buenos Aires Herald