Exclusive: Trump says he’s “50/50” on Iran deal, decision by Sunday

President Trump told Axios on Saturday that he would be meeting with his negotiators later in the day to discuss Iran’s latest offer, and would likely decide by Sunday whether to resume the war.

The big picture: Trump said it was a “solid 50/50” as to whether he would be able to make a “good” deal or else “blow them to kingdom come.”

The latest: The president is expected to hold a conference call with Gulf leaders later today to discuss the situation with Iran, per two sources with knowledge of the plans.

• The leaders of Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey are currently expected to be among the participants.
• A senior Israeli official said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his aides are in touch with the White House about the emerging deal.

Friction point: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told Axios that some leaders in the region have urged President Trump to strike Iran to weaken the regime and get a deal on better terms.

• On the other hand, he said, other leaders in the region and some of the president’s top advisers urged him to take the deal that is on the table.
• Those voices, he said, claimed the Strait of Hormuz can’t be secure from Iranian influence and that if Iran is attacked it has the ability to destroy substantial Gulf oil operations.
• “Count me as a strong skeptic that Iran can’t be prevented from terrorizing the Strait of Hormuz and that we can’t defend vital interests in the region after massive attacks against Iran — if they have been truly obliterated they shouldn’t be able to do either,” he said. “Time will tell. I am hoping for a good outcome still.”

The big picture: Trump told Axios he’d meet with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner later on Saturday to discuss Iran’s latest response. Vice President Vance is also expected to join.

• Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has been mediating between the parties, left Tehran on Saturday after meeting top officials there and trying to push a deal across the line.
• A deal was not finalized but Pakistan said there was “encouraging progress toward a final understanding.”
• The new draft that Trump intends to review on Saturday emerged from the Iran-Pakistan talks.

The other side: Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said Saturday that Iran and the U.S. were in the final stage of discussions on a memorandum of understanding to end the war.

• The spokesperson said the MOU would also deal with gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the U.S. blockade and releasing frozen Iranian funds.
• He added that a 30-60 day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement would follow.

Zoom in: Trump said he would only take a deal that covers issues like uranium enrichment and the fate of Iran’s existing stockpile.

• However, those issues are unlikely to be resolved in any detail under the MOU the U.S. and Iran are discussing to end the war and launch more in-depth negotiations.
• Regional mediators — Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan — have been scrambling over the past 24 hours to bridge the gaps between the parties. They have held numerous calls with both Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Witkoff.

State of play: “I think one of two things will happen: either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good,” Trump said.

• He acknowledged that “some people would much rather have a deal and others would rather resume the war,” but rejected the idea that Netanyahu was “worried” that he might make an unfavorable deal.
• Trump described Netanyahu as “torn.” Israeli officials say the prime minister is highly concerned about the deal under discussion and has urged Trump to launch another round of strikes.

What to watch: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday that there had been “some progress” in talks and “there might be some news later today.”

• He said Iran can never have a nuclear weapon and must give up its enriched uranium, and the Strait of Hormuz needs to be fully reopened “without tolls.”
• Up to now, the U.S. and Iranian positions on both the nuclear issue and the strait have been irreconcilable. Those issues might not be fully resolved even if a peace memo is signed.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

المصدر: Axios