Going solo in Negeri Sembilan risky for PH, say analysts

PETALING JAYA: Pakatan Harapan is likely to face an uphill battle in the Negeri Sembilan state election if it contests independently, with analysts saying the coalition may struggle to replicate past successes.

Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani and Chin Yee Mun told FMT it would be risky for PH to go it alone, given the coalition’s strength was largely confined to Chinese-majority, urban and mixed seats.

Asrul, an associate vice-president at The Asia Group, pointed out that PH’s strong showing at the 2023 state polls was achieved through cooperation with Barisan Nasional under the unity government framework, which helped reduce vote-splitting in Malay-majority seats.

“It would be difficult for PH to replicate the scale of its 2023 success if it contests against BN. PH may still remain competitive and could even form the state government on its own, but likely with a much narrower margin.

“Without BN, PH would likely retain its advantage in Chinese-majority, urban and mixed seats where it already has an established base.

“However, Malay-majority and marginal mixed constituencies would become far more competitive, especially in a three-cornered fight involving Perikatan Nasional,” he said, pointing out that PH lacked the Malay grassroots machinery to rival Umno and PAS.

Asrul, however, acknowledged that PH would benefit from incumbency, administrative continuity, and PH deputy chairman Loke Siew Fook’s strong local standing in Seremban and surrounding areas.

PH won 17 of the 36 seats in the 2023 Negeri Sembilan election and formed the state government with Barisan Nasional, which secured 14 seats. PN won the remaining five.

In the 2018 state election, PH went head-to-head with BN and emerged victorious with 20 seats, while BN secured the remaining 16.

Loke, the Chennah assemblyman and Seremban MP, insisted on Sunday that PH had the political strength to contest a Negeri Sembilan state election on its own, pointing to its ability to govern the state independently from 2018 to 2023 despite various challenges.

The DAP secretary-general had also said his party was of the view that dissolving the Negeri Sembilan assembly was the best way to resolve the political crisis in the state.

The crisis erupted last month after all 14 Umno-BN state assemblymen withdrew their support for menteri besar Aminuddin Harun over his handling of the attempted ouster of state Yang di-Pertuan Besar, Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir, by its four chieftains.

Umno’s central leadership later ordered the assemblymen to continue supporting the state administration.

Chin said PH in Negeri Sembilan would be reliant on DAP’s ability to deliver Chinese-majority and mixed seats, as its support in Malay constituencies remains weak.

“PH also needs to understand that non-Malay voters are no longer its fixed deposit. The Sabah election is a good example,” he said, referring to DAP’s failure to win any of the eight seats it contested.

“But, it appears that they (PH) may not have the final say. The action of the 14 Umno assemblymen reflects that BN is no longer interested in collaborating with PH,” he said.

Negeri Sembilan crisis not yet a game changer

Asrul said that while the crisis in the state was politically sensitive, it was unlikely to become a decisive issue for voters unless it escalates further or is framed as an act of disrespect toward the monarchy.

“PH’s ability to contain the fallout and retain the consent of the Yang di-Pertuan Besar prevented it from turning into a full-blown legitimacy crisis.

“However, Umno and PN could still weaponise the issue in Malay-majority seats by portraying it as a failure to respect royal institutions,” he said.

Asrul said PH’s best defence would be to point out that Umno had sought to destabilise a functioning state government, while Umno’s strongest line of attack would be to claim that PH triggered a constitutional crisis.

“Ultimately, the larger electoral impact may not come from the royal crisis itself, but from whether it permanently damages trust between PH and Umno at the state level.

“If that trust breaks down, PH’s path to retaining Negeri Sembilan becomes significantly harder.”

المصدر: Free Malaysia Today