Politics

James Talarico’s theory of victory in Texas

By rivo_admin · May 27, 2026 · 10 min read

In the end, James Talarico and Democrats got the matchup they had been salivating over for months.

Within two hours of Ken Paxton’s GOP primary win on Tuesday, Talarico had hauled in $600,000 — the strongest two hours of his entire campaign. Recent internal polling from a pro-Talarico PAC shows the Democrat has a 7-point lead against Paxton. Both figures were shared first with POLITICO.

In an interview, Talarico said he’s confident about his chances.

But Talarico faces a Texas-sized challenge to finally deliver on Democrats’ long-held fantasy of flipping the state, just two years after Trump won it by 14 points.

It’s an open question whether the state representative, who participated in Paxton’s impeachment trial, can successfully capitalize on the general-election candidacy of the scandal-plagued GOP nominee","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/03/paxton-cornyn-texas-senate-maga-00808211","_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa30000","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa30001","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>scandal-plagued GOP nominee.

Talarico said Tuesday night that to win in November, he must convert supporters of Sen. John Cornyn — a conservative by almost any metric, except Trump’s. After Cornyn conceded, Talarico thanked the four-term incumbent","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://x.com/jamestalarico/status/2059440382400774481?s=20","_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa30002","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa30003","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>thanked the four-term incumbent for his service and told his supporters “you have a place in our campaign.”

It’s all part of his general election pitch, which Talarico outlined in the interview following Paxton’s primary win.

“I have a legislative record that I think has a lot to offer supporters of Senator Cornyn. Ken Paxton has a criminal record. I have a legislative record,” Talarico told POLITICO (Paxton struck a deal in 2024 where he paid restitution and securities fraud felony charges were dropped","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/26/texas-ag-ken-paxton-security-fraud-00149013","_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa30004","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa30005","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>Paxton struck a deal in 2024 where he paid restitution and securities fraud felony charges were dropped). He emphasized his history reaching across the aisle “to cut property taxes and raise teacher pay and lower the cost of housing and child care and prescription drugs,” and touted his willingness to break with Democrats on issues including energy and the border that are important in Texas.

“I’ve called out the extremes in both parties, on the right and left, and as you know, called out President Biden for failing to secure our southern border,” he said. “I’ve pushed back against national Democrats who want to hurt the Texas oil and gas industry and so I think that Texans are looking for a senator who is going to be independent, who’s not going to serve a political party, not going to serve any special interests or megadonors, but who’s going to serve people of Texas.”

MAGA leaders are confident they can beat Talarico, even if they acknowledge it won’t be easy. In a text, Steve Bannon, the talk show host and former adviser to Trump, predicted Paxton would win by five points this fall but said “it’s going to be a total grind.” Talarico will likely be a formidable fundraiser. He raised an eye-popping $27 million","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/04/15/congress/senate-democrats-talarico-ossoff-fundraising-numbers-00872685","_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa30006","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa30007","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>eye-popping $27 million in the first quarter of 2026 and had $10 million cash on hand. Even by those standards, Tuesday night’s $600,000 haul was a big one for his campaign.

Paxton sent an email blast to supporters when he won Tuesday evening asking them to help him raise $1 million before midnight. He will have to catch up fast: He had just $2.3 million in the bank as of the end of March.

But Talarico is not the first Texas Democrat to raise big money, and others have fallen short — Beto O’Rourke and Wendy Davis come to mind.

“Texas has always been challenging. There are states that can always be fool’s gold. The question is: Is Texas one of those?” said David Axelrod, the longtime Democratic operative. He added of Talarico: “There’s gonna be a race to define him.”

Republicans are already sharpening their knives.In his Tuesday night victory speech","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qH_aD8TsHqM","_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa30008","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa30009","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>Tuesday night victory speech, Paxton mocked Talarico as “tofu Talarico,” “six-gender Jimmy,” “James Talafreako” and “low-T Talarico.” He called the Democrat “a threat to everything we hold dear in this state and in this country” and said he was “the most extreme radical the Democrats have ever nominated.”

The Trump-aligned Club for Growth endorsed Paxton on Tuesday and telegraphed the coming attacks with a two-minute online video","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zP-El4LZl_0","_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa40000","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa40001","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>two-minute online video that labeled Talarico a “woke weirdo.” The video features clips of him using religious language to defend the trans community and jokes that what he believes “offends Jesus” are “Binary white people who eat barbecue and remember the Alamo.”

The insults haven’t seemed to slow the Democrat down.

In a memo shared first with POLITICO","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019e-67d8-d0fd-a3de-f7ddbd600000","_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa40002","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa40003","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>memo shared first with POLITICO, Talarico’s campaign called him “the best-positioned candidate in a generation to win Texas.”

“While ever-increasing costs have Texas looking for an alternative to the corrupt status quo, James is putting together a broad coalition that can win,” his campaign manager Seth Krasne writes in the memo, which also pointed to public polls","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/texas-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html","_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa40004","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa40005","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>public polls showing Talarico in the lead.

The Talarico campaign also said he is working to build a coalition that includes “disaffected Republicans, swingy Independents, and the young, Black, and Latino voters who have moved away from Democrats in recent years.”

The pro-Talarico Lone Star Rising PAC, which commissioned the internal poll showing Talarico leading Paxton, found that 45 percent of Texas voters would cast their ballots for Talarico, 38 percent for Paxton and 3 percent for independent candidate Ted Brown, with 14 percent undecided.

The poll, conducted on Friday and Saturday","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://static.politico.com/c0/7c/2c2db3c14c74946fa393d9e485cc/texas-gen-results-ppp-5-26-1.pdf","_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa40006","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa40007","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>conducted on Friday and Saturday by Public Policy Polling, showed that 41 percent of voters view Talarico favorably and 35 percent view him unfavorable; meanwhile, 30 percent view Paxton favorably and 56 percent view him unfavorably. Talarico led Paxton by 13 points when it came to trust over handling voters’ economic concerns and 15 points when it came to representing voters’ values.

“Texas remains a challenging battleground,” Lone Star Rising PAC Director Garry Jones said in its own memo","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019e-66fc-d83d-abbf-f6fe34100000","_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa40008","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"0000019e-6ae8-de27-a59e-fffa6aa40009","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}”>said in its own memo, also shared first with POLITICO. “But for the first time in a generation, Democrats enter a statewide general election with a candidate, political environment, and a deeply flawed opponent capable of making Texas the most competitive battleground state in the Nation.”

Jones declined to give specific fundraising numbers but told POLITICO it has received “a number of” six-figure donations or commitments since Trump backed Paxton last week. “The day of the endorsement we heard from new national donors newly engaged in the race, and donor excitement has been very strong,” he said.

A representative for the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC declined to comment on how much it has raised since Trump’s endorsement.

Paxton’s campaign did not respond to an interview request from POLITICO. In a statement, his campaign said he is “laser-focused on uniting the Republican Party, working tirelessly to earn the support of every single Texas voter, and defeating James Talarico.”

In the interview, Talarico said he wouldn’t change his campaign during the general eleciton.

“We’re running the same campaign that we’ve been running since September, and I think it speaks to people across the spectrum and across the state,” he said.

المصدر: Politico

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